Ozempic’s Impact by Food Type:

GLP-1 drugs (i.e. Ozempic) are significantly impacting food companies’ bottom lines while there are only an estimated 1.2mm prescriptions in the US. Ozempic’s primary effect on food behavior is that it gets people to stop snacking. A helpful insight for everyone not on Ozempic.

GLP-1s are Just Getting Started

The growth potential is obviously large since GLP-1s have proven effective in managing obesity, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes.

Why is Ozempic Suddenly in the News?

GLP-1s have been around for almost 20 years, but recently became much more effective. There are many more candidates in the pipeline with even better efficacy and toxicity profiles. Mounjaro (Tirzepatide) is currently the efficacy leader.

But Cost is the Limiting Factor

Until generics hit the market, the popularity of GLP-1s will be a function of private insurance and Medicare/Medicaid coverage. The low monthly cost of Ozempic in Germany shows just how big the market could be.

Elsewhere…Earnings Keep Rising:

Heading into earnings season, forward earnings expectations for the S&P 500 have rebounded strongly in Q3 2023 after declining over the past year. Wall Street analysts have become more sanguine on further margin improvement.

But the US Economy Stands Alone:

The US is one of a few economies that has been surprising positively in 2023. Europe is in a recession and China faces structural economic growth challenges.

For Comparison: How Big is Gaza?

Gaza is half the size of New York City and about the size of Las Vegas or Detroit.