Looking Forward

Participants in the logistics supply chain can give insights into future business activity. They are in discussions with manufacturers and retailers regarding demand, lead times, as well as inventory. Right now, there is still a glut of goods in the supply chain with the ratio of suppliers trying to cut inventory relative to suppliers trying to increase inventories is at a record high.

It is particularly surprising to see such an aggressive push to cut inventories at the beginning of the holiday season.

Trucks Confirm

Trucking companies primarily move consumer goods. Their forward expectations for trucking volumes continues to track negative despite a growing economy.

Rails = Consumer + Industrial

Railroads primarily move industrial products (cars, rocks, agricultural goods, etc…) and some consumer products. Future volume expectations for railroads are tracking at their worst on record despite the first price concessions in 25 years.